The Waugh Zone's Latest Take On Labour Politics Today Is Titled - NUCLEAR BUTTONHOLED

* Pau Waugh

by Paul Waugh | Politics Opinion

That one word ‘No’ from Jeremy Corbyn (to Sarah Montague’s ‘would you use nuclear weapons?’ question) certainly sparked a chain reaction. For many shadow ministers I talked to yesterday, it encapsulated their Corbyn problem: his sincerely held beliefs put him out of step with ‘ordinary’ Britons as much as his PLP. For others, it just underlined how Labour is turning itself into a five-year long episode of the Moral Maze rather than a functioning alternative party of Government.

What was surprising perhaps was the scale of the public backlash from shadow ministers. But Maria Eagle had made it a condition of accepting her Shadow Defence Secretary post (as had her shadow defence team) that Trident would remain policy until any review found otherwise. 

After successfully avoiding a vote this week, she viewed it as an act of open warfare when Corbyn used his leader’s speech to again ram home his opposition. Her words yesterday were ominous, suggesting she’d quit if the party dumped Trident renewal “something will probably have to give at some stage or another." The GMB's Paul Kenny on C4News and Wato made clear Corbyn's very future was threatened by it too.

Andy Burnham said yesterday that Trident ‘would outlive the term of office of any individual prime minister’, a clear hint that it should outlive any individual Labour leader. Still, with the maingate decision and Commons vote due next June, Labour moderates hope they’ve succeeded in making this issue irrelevant by kicking off any change in policy to next September’s conference. 

But what if Cameron is super-devious and delays the Commons vote until after Labour conference? He’d guarantee the disintegration of the Shadow Cabinet. That would leave him with an even more leftwing Opposition but would it be a provocation too far? Lots of Tories want Corbyn to remain, after all.

Nick Watt, as astute as ever in the Guardian today, points out the actual procedures for using a nuke. The very first day a Prime Minister is appointed, he has to write a letter to the four commanders of the UK’s Vanguard submarines, to be opened only if the UK has ceased to become a ‘functioning state’ and is under nuclear attack. The PM’ s letter would give the required authority to either use nuclear weapons or not. The assumption from Corbyn’s remarks yesterday is that his letter would not give that authorisation, unlike every previous PM since the UK acquired its own nuclear deterrent.

Jeremy Corbyn is in Scotland, home of the Trident deterrent, today. But there’s little it seems he can do to stop Labour losing seats in Holyrood next May. And even if Michelle Tomson quits and forces a by-election, many expect the SNP to still march to victory. Will the Corbynistas blame ‘moderate’ Kezia Dugdale for not being left enough? And will she now have to restrain her own views on Trident and change party policy to stem the continuing SNP tide?

* Paul Waugh is the Executive Editor, Politics, HuffPost UK.