Today's Update From The Waugh Zone Is Titled 'BIG BENN STRIKES'

* Paul WAUGH

by Paul WAUGH | Politics

The Commons is back today. Health Questions (including on the junior doctors strike) and a statement on the floods may well concern voters outside the Westminster bubble more than Labour’s reshuffle.

But the reshuffle has sucked the life away from other political news and the big Parliamentary event will come when Jeremy Corbyn faces David Cameron across the despatch box for the PM’s statement on the December EU summit.

And senior MPs expect that Hilary Benn will be sitting alongside the Labour leader on the frontbench, as would be normal for such a statement, in his role as Shadow Foreign Secretary.

‘Ask not for whom the Benn tolls, he tolls for thee’. That seems to have been the message among shadow ministers yesterday. In the very first one-on-one meeting with Corbyn, Rosie Winterton is said to have warned the leadership that sacking Benn (he wasn’t interested in any other job) would have sparked a wider walkout.

If Benn stays it would show that you can, like IDS, refuse to move and make yourself ‘unsackable’ in a reshuffle. Or, more aptly, you can signal you will quit if you’re offered another role. (IDS has written a resignation letter several times since 2010, I understand, with his most recent during the tax credits threat to Universal Credit). It’s a dangerous game though and is not always a long-term recipe for stability.

Winterton was later seen having a heated discussion with John McDonnell, but party sources deny they had a ‘big bust up’. In fact, I’m told McDonnell and Winterton ended the evening with him joking about her being a ‘pantomime Dame’ (a reference to her New Year’s Honours gong) and they both left late on good terms.

* Labour Leader: Jeremy Corbyn is expected to complete his
shadow cabinet reshuffle today. (Credit: via Wiki)

But bad blood remains. And Maria Eagle could be the biggest victim, with persistent suggestions that Lisa Nandy could replace her. Eagle infuriated the leadership during conference when she said Corbyn’s Today prog ‘nuclear button’ remarks were not ‘helpful’ for a ‘potential Prime Minister’. She further irritated Corbyn by backing Gen Nick Houghton on Marr over the same issue.

Even if Eagle remains, as Gary Gibbon pointed out late last night, the leadership is determined to go ahead with another email plebiscite on Trident (as JC hinted in his HuffPost end-of-year interview). Bypassing the Shad Cab may be a smarter tactic than defenestrating it in one go, more cautious advisers say.

The hour-long talk with Benn may well have focused on the need to sing from the same hymn sheet and to publicly recognise Corbyn's authority and mandate on foreign affairs. The leadership’s team want this to be known as the ‘coherence’ reshuffle rather than the ‘revenge reshuffle’. 

Allies say free votes and debate are one thing, but a leader has a right not to be openly undermined and his personal credibility as PM questioned for his views on Trident and foreign policy, for which he has a mandate from members.

But some more hard line Corbyistas think the danger is the reshuffle will be seen as ‘botched butchery’ and the moment for a big clear out has passed. Corbyn’s own affability and natural caution could be the most important factors.

But what of the bigger picture? As the Sun points out, a new YouGov poll out yesterday showed the Tories are trusted much more than Labour on the economy, law and order, tackling unemployment and even on education (a nice fillip for Nicky Morgan’s own leadership ambitions?).

Corbyn’s personal poll rating is minus 32. Wes Streeting put it thus: “You can rearrange the chairs around the table as much as we like, until these numbers change we won’t win a General Election.”

Shadow Cabinet is due to take place at 12.45pm today. Senior sources hope a new list be ready by then. Will it feature incremental change rather than revolution, with more women in more senior roles?

* Paul Waugh is the Executive Editor, Politics, HuffPost UK.