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| * Paul Waugh |
by Pau Waugh | Politics
The Treasury’s ‘short term’ study into Brexit certainly won the Monday morning headlines it wanted, with scary forecasts of a recession and a ‘profound shock’ that would shrink the UK economy by 6%.
But as the Brexiteers suggest this is yet another ‘dodgy dossier, the FT has a nice story that the Treasury was so nervous that it employed Charlie Bean, the former deputy governor of the Bank of England, to cast a critical eye over the process and give it the stamp of approval.
On the one hand, many Outers admit there would be a ‘shock’ to the UK economy, but the question is how deep and how long (Steve Hilton in the Mail today accepts there is a risk of leaving). The Treasury’s guesswork is inherently uncertain yet tries to pin certainty on the debate. Yet George Osborne’s key line, alongside the PM in Hampshire after 9.30am, will be this: “Does Britain really want this DIY recession?”.
Some Eurosceptic Tories now see Cameron and Osborne as having all the credibility of 'the Chuckle Brothers' but without the laughs. Iain Duncan Smith has already said the forecasts are ‘not honest’.
And IDS on Radio 4's Westminster Hour last night underlined just how much damage is being done to Cameron and Osborne from this blue-on-blue conflict, using a line straight out of a Labour attack ad. He said “Pinocchio…with his nose just getting longer and longer and longer….[is] very similar to the chancellor. With every fib you tell, it gets longer. Who am I to judge how many there have been?”
The Treasury’s ‘short term’ study into Brexit certainly won the Monday morning headlines it wanted, with scary forecasts of a recession and a ‘profound shock’ that would shrink the UK economy by 6%.
But as the Brexiteers suggest this is yet another ‘dodgy dossier, the FT has a nice story that the Treasury was so nervous that it employed Charlie Bean, the former deputy governor of the Bank of England, to cast a critical eye over the process and give it the stamp of approval.
On the one hand, many Outers admit there would be a ‘shock’ to the UK economy, but the question is how deep and how long (Steve Hilton in the Mail today accepts there is a risk of leaving). The Treasury’s guesswork is inherently uncertain yet tries to pin certainty on the debate. Yet George Osborne’s key line, alongside the PM in Hampshire after 9.30am, will be this: “Does Britain really want this DIY recession?”.
Some Eurosceptic Tories now see Cameron and Osborne as having all the credibility of 'the Chuckle Brothers' but without the laughs. Iain Duncan Smith has already said the forecasts are ‘not honest’.
And IDS on Radio 4's Westminster Hour last night underlined just how much damage is being done to Cameron and Osborne from this blue-on-blue conflict, using a line straight out of a Labour attack ad. He said “Pinocchio…with his nose just getting longer and longer and longer….[is] very similar to the chancellor. With every fib you tell, it gets longer. Who am I to judge how many there have been?”
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| * PM David Cameron, Chancellor George Osborne and Home Secretary, Theresa May laugh in the Commons. (Credit: via The Waugh Zone). |
Mark Carney is a much better source of ammo than the Treasury. And I suspect the Cam and Osborne Q&A may focus on how dodgy some of these stats really are. But never forget that Project Fear simply depends not on facts but on fear - and the belief that there's no such thing as bad publicity.
Vote Leave wants to hit the NHS issue hard this week so were dismayed by Simon Stevens’ Carney-like warnings of ‘dangerous’ Brexit on Marr yesterday. No wonder IDS said: “It’s a real issue about the misuse of the Civil Service here.” Still, Stevens will hate the implication he’s anybody’s tool.
The Mail on Sunday story yesterday about Boris offering the keys to No11 to Andrea Leadsom (and two others), in return for support in a leadership bid, is seen by Team Bojo as a ‘black op’ by his enemies. More worrying is the threat posed by someone more Eurosceptic than Boris, with the guarantee of a second referendum.
Carney is before the Treasury Select tomorrow, the IFS is out on Wednesday and you can bet the G7 will have an anti-Brexit line later this week. In the Commons, the Queen’s Speech debate dominates everything this week and today the focus is ‘public services’. After last week’s TTIP ambush, word is that Brexiteers are looking for more Parliamentary theatrics in the debate itself.
Vote Leave wants to hit the NHS issue hard this week so were dismayed by Simon Stevens’ Carney-like warnings of ‘dangerous’ Brexit on Marr yesterday. No wonder IDS said: “It’s a real issue about the misuse of the Civil Service here.” Still, Stevens will hate the implication he’s anybody’s tool.
The Mail on Sunday story yesterday about Boris offering the keys to No11 to Andrea Leadsom (and two others), in return for support in a leadership bid, is seen by Team Bojo as a ‘black op’ by his enemies. More worrying is the threat posed by someone more Eurosceptic than Boris, with the guarantee of a second referendum.
Carney is before the Treasury Select tomorrow, the IFS is out on Wednesday and you can bet the G7 will have an anti-Brexit line later this week. In the Commons, the Queen’s Speech debate dominates everything this week and today the focus is ‘public services’. After last week’s TTIP ambush, word is that Brexiteers are looking for more Parliamentary theatrics in the debate itself.
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* Paul Waugh is the Executive Editor, Politics, HuffPost UK.
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